TECHNO-ECONOMIC MEASURES FOR REDUCING THERMAL ENERGY LOSSES IN RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS UNDER EMERGENCY CONDITIONS

Abstract

This study develops a screening-level techno-economic framework for reducing heat-energy losses and strengthening the emergency resilience of residential buildings in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The analysis combines a heat-supply baseline with a building-envelope retrofit case and a rooftop photovoltaic scenario. The baseline comprises ten heat-supply sources consuming 4.5 million m³ of natural gas per day over a normative 129-day heating period. For the assessed building group, the envelope measure applies 60 mm insulation with thermal conductivity not exceeding 0.035 W/(m·K) to 3,976 m² of external wall. Annual thermal-energy demand decreases from 1,665,771 to 974,525 kWh, equivalent to a 41.5% reduction. The corresponding saving of 364,453 m³ of natural gas yields an annual monetary benefit of 236.894 million UZS at the 2024 baseline tariff of 650 UZS/m³. A separate rooftop scenario allocates 755 m² to a 151 kWp photovoltaic system. Under the stated assumption of eight equivalent full-load hours per day for 300 days, annual generation is 362.4 MWh. At an initial cost of 1.6459 billion UZS and a unit electricity benefit of 1,000 UZS/kWh, the simple payback period is 4.54 years. The results show that envelope insulation and distributed solar address different components of emergency risk: the former lowers peak heat demand and slows indoor-temperature loss, whereas the latter diversifies electricity supply. The estimates are transparent screening results; investment decisions require hourly simulation, measured performance, full installed costs, system losses, maintenance, degradation and discounted cash-flow analysis.